Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

30  Centre for Economics and Business Research Table 7: Differences vs. core results - TAG fuel consumption projections in both scenarios sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions 15.7 7.7 0.1 5.8 2.0 Value of time impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Time spent refuelling/recharging 2.1 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 Tax revenue impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel Duty -13.7 -7.1 -0.1 -4.9 -1.7 VAT on fuel -4.9 -2.5 0.0 -1.8 -0.6 Household/business spending Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel 29.6 15.2 0.2 10.5 3.6 Fuel (resource cost only) 10.9 5.6 0.1 3.9 1.3 Low carbon fuel (biofuel) adoption An alternative and perhaps complementary approach to de-carbonising the vehicle fleet is to use low carbon liquid and gaseous fuels. The use of these fuels– predominantly biofuels deployed in road transport – currently deliver about a third of all domestic transport carbon savings under current carbon budgets.42As with materials for EV vehicle construction, the availability of sustainable raw materials for low carbon fuels is limited, with increasing demands from other sectors. The government’s strategy has therefore been to prioritise the use of low carbon fuels for modes with limited alternatives to liquid and gaseous fuels, such as aviation. But low carbon fuels will continue to be an available as a potential resource to bring about emissions savings in the UK vehicle fleet. Given the limited progress of electrifying long-haul HGVs, this is likely to be a priority area for the use of low carbon liquid or gaseous fuels. More generally, in the transport sector, the priority will be to use these fuels to the aviation and maritime sectors. The government estimates that 5.4 MtCO2e were saved in 2019 by displacing fossil fuels with low carbon fuels, which is equivalent to taking 2.5 million cars off the road. Moreover, in 2019, low carbon fuels accounted for approximately 5% of total UK fuels by volume, of which 2/3 were made from waste materials, such as used cooking oil, fatbergs, food waste or roadside grass.43 The evidence on the precise environmental impact of biofuels is mixed. Based on 42 Transport Decarbonisation plan 43 Transport Decarbonisation plan