Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

31  Centre for Economics and Business Research evidence published by the European Commission, 44 we assume that greenhouse gas emissions of fuels with a 100% biofuel blend are 30% lower, and this target is progressively reached by 2050. This reduces by some £15 billion the environmental benefits of a ban, as emissions from petrol and diesel using vehicles are lower. For comparative purposes, it is assumed that this could be achieved with the same investment required to facilitate the infrastructure improvements to facilitate the increased EV vehicle usage induced by the bans. Table 8: Headline results – Low carbon fuels sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions 49.3 28.8 0.5 15.3 4.7 Air quality emissions 11.2 4.5 0.1 5.7 0.9 CO2e, vehicle manufacture -32.5 -21.5 -1.1 -8.9 -1.1 Value of time impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Time spent refuelling/recharging -46.5 -25.6 -0.4 -12.9 -7.5 Tax revenue impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel Duty -59.5 -35.9 -0.7 -17.6 -5.3 VAT on fuel -17.3 -10.6 -0.2 -5.0 -1.5 Household/business spending Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel 41.8 29.4 0.6 9.2 2.6 Fuel (resource cost only) -34.9 -17.1 -0.3 -13.3 -4.3 New vehicles -187.8 -98.0 -7.2 -67.2 -15.4 Infrastructure impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Investment Costs -98.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a Table 9: Differences vs. core results – Low carbon fuels sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions -15.4 -8.9 -0.2 -4.5 -1.8 Energy price shocks The Russia-Ukraine war coincided with a sharp increase in global energy and food prices. This has been an example of a significant global supply shock that has impacted global energy markets. Such shocks may significantly impact the results of the analysis. To understand potential impacts three shocks have been assumed so to ascertain the likely impacts. 44 Biofuels – the way forward? https://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/1si_en.pdf

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