29 Centre for Economics and Business Research Table 5: Differences vs. core results - Alternative carbon prices sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions -51.8 -30.2 -0.6 -15.8 -5.2 CO2e, vehicle manufacture 26.0 17.2 0.9 7.1 0.8 TAG fuel consumption projections in both scenarios In our core results, we assume a different trajectory for petrol and diesel consumption after 2030 in the two scenarios; in the Baseline, the rate of decline continues, reflecting manufacturers’ investment in efficiency improvements if they do not expect a ban. In this sensitivity test, the higher TAG values for fuel consumption are used in the Baseline as well as the Alternative. Table 6: Headline results - TAG fuel consumption projections in both scenarios sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions 80.4 45.4 0.8 25.6 8.5 Air quality emissions 11.2 4.5 0.1 5.7 0.9 CO2e, vehicle manufacture -32.5 -21.5 -1.1 -8.9 -1.1 Value of time impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Time spent refuelling/recharging -44.4 -24.4 -0.4 -12.2 -7.5 Tax revenue impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel Duty -73.2 -42.9 -0.8 -22.5 -7.0 VAT on fuel -22.2 -13.1 -0.2 -6.7 -2.1 Household/business spending Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel 71.4 44.6 0.8 19.8 6.2 Fuel (resource cost only) -24.0 -11.5 -0.2 -9.4 -2.9 New vehicles -187.8 -98.0 -7.2 -67.2 -15.4 Infrastructure impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Investment Costs -98.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
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