Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

28  Centre for Economics and Business Research 5.4. Sensitivity tests In this section we consider the impact of changing various assumptions in our model. In each case, summary results are presented alongside differences vs. the core results. Alternative carbon prices Our core results use central CO2e values from TAG. Under these values, a tonne of CO2e in 2022 is priced at £255.40. Other values can be used however – for instance the ‘social cost of carbon’ estimated by the US Government41 in 2022 is £48.54. In either case, values grow over time to reflect larger impacts of climate change and higher GDP. Using the US social costs of carbon results in significantly lower monetised environmental benefits from a ban – both driving emissions and production emissions changes are valued less; therefore, the net environmental impacts of the ban are reduced by roughly £36 billion. Table 4: Headline results - Alternative carbon prices sensitivity test (£Bn) Environmental impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions 12.9 7.5 0.1 3.9 1.3 Air quality emissions 11.2 4.5 0.1 5.7 0.9 CO2e, vehicle manufacture -6.5 -4.3 -0.2 -1.8 -0.2 Value of time impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Time spent refuelling/recharging -46.5 -25.6 -0.4 -12.9 -7.5 Tax revenue impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel Duty -59.5 -35.9 -0.7 -17.6 -5.3 VAT on fuel -17.3 -10.6 -0.2 -5.0 -1.5 Household/business spending Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel 41.8 29.4 0.6 9.2 2.6 Fuel (resource cost only) -34.9 -17.1 -0.3 -13.3 -4.3 New vehicles -187.8 -98.0 -7.2 -67.2 -15.4 Infrastructure impacts Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Investment Costs -98.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a 41 Technical Support Document: Social Cost of Carbon, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide Interim Estimates under Executive Order 13990 https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2021/02/TechnicalSupportDocument_SocialCostofCarbonMethaneNitrousOxide.pdf Table A-1

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