Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

19  Centre for Economics and Business Research 5. Results 5.1. Core results Monetised Impacts There are a range of impacts that can be converted into monetary terms. This allows a comparison of these costs by taking the ratio of or arithmetic difference between total costs and benefits. This provides a measurement of the benefit cost ratio and net present value respectively. All values are converted into present value terms through discounting and prices converted into 2022 terms. The results in this section compare the estimates for the ‘Alternative Case’ where the bans come into effect with the ‘Baseline Case’ where they do not. Monetised Benefits There are a range of assessed benefits associated with the 2030 ban. These form the basis of the arguments for the Government implementing bans on ICE vehicles. Reduced CO2 and air quality emissions during driving The aim of the Government is to play its declared part in the limitation of limit global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limiting to 1.5°C means. However, the UK car market accounts for a very small (0.2%) percentage of global emissions. There are fewer CO2e emissions deriving directly from ‘tail-pipes’ in the alternative scenario of the bans going ahead. Emissions impacts are monetised through application of DfT values per tonne of CO2e, with this valuation implicitly economic benefits from CO2e emission reductions. This occurs because of the increasing proportion of EVs in the fleet mix from 2030 onwards. Whilst second hand ICE vehicles continue to be part of the mix for several years, due to natural scrappage rates, after time their presence is expected to decline significantly. Figure 3 below shows how the composition of the total vehicle fleet (cars, motorbikes, LGVs, and HGVs) by propulsion changes under each scenario. In the Baseline, ICE vehicles have gradually fallen to below 70% of the overall fleet by 2050. In the Alternative, however, a rapid decline in their share begins after the ban on most ICE vehicles in 2030, with the result that by 2050 they make up less than 10% of the fleet, and over 80% of vehicles are BEVs (with HEVs/PHEVs making up the remainder).