Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

18  Centre for Economics and Business Research Emissions are provided for both exhaust and non-exhaust sources. The former is only relevant for vehicles which use petrol and diesel – they are used as given for ICE vehicles and scaled according to fuel consumption for HEV and PHEV equivalents. The latter, which includes tyre wear, brake wear, and road abrasion, applies to all vehicles; therefore, EV emissions are lower than for ICE equivalents but not zero. Vehicle production emissions There are also CO2e emissions associated with the production of new vehicles, which we apply to new vehicle purchases each year. Whilst electric vehicles have lower per-kilometre emissions, their production emissions are systematically higher. Precise estimates on relative production emissions vary. We combine the findings of a research paper30 which estimates emissions for ICE, HEV, PHEV, and BEV cars and a Volvo study which estimates BEV production emissions at 70% higher than ICE vehicles31. Monetising emissions Total emissions in tonnes of CO2e, NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 have therefore been calculated by scenario, year, and source. These are valued according to TAG, which provides carbon values forecast to 2100 and damage cost values for pollutants32. Low, central, and high values are provided. Our core results use the central values. 30 Lifecycle emissions from cars, Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership. 31 . 32 Pollutant values are assumed by TAG to remain constant in real terms, so future forecasts are not required or provided.