Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

17  Centre for Economics and Business Research The NTS27 provides distance travelled by car and motorcycle in total and by purpose including business and commuting. We use 2019 values from the NTS – the most recent data, for 2020, is seriously affected by Covid-19. This gives us business/commuting/leisure breakdowns for car and motorcycle travel, and the corresponding values of time are weighted accordingly. These calculations are summarised in Table 1. 4.5. Driving and production emissions One of the core motivations of the Government’s policy is to help reduce the pace of climate change. Under this policy, tackling climate change is primarily achieved through reducing the annual rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like most economies, UK emissions generally come from the both the production and use of energy, including from the electricity sector itself. The extent to which the electricity sector contributes to overall emissions is heavily dependent upon the extent of fossil-fuelled-based electricity generation. Annual kilometres per vehicle The DfT provides annual statistics on road traffic by vehicle type28. Dividing total distances (using 2019 values to avoid impacts of the pandemic) by vehicle numbers gave estimated annual kilometres per vehicle. These are combined with per-kilometre emissions to calculate total driving emissions, and are used elsewhere in the analysis, for example in charging time calculations. Carbon dioxide emissions per kilometre travelled TAG provides figures for carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions per litre of petrol or diesel burnt and per kWh of electricity used. Petrol and diesel emissions per litre do not decline after 2020 (i.e., no change in their composition is assumed), whilst emissions associated with electricity consumption continue to decline until 2050, reflecting anticipated changes in the UK’s energy generation mix. These are combined with fuel consumption figures (litres or kWh per km) to estimate emissions per km by vehicle class to 2050. Whilst emissions per litre or kWh are assumed identical in each scenario, the differing fuel consumption assumptions do lead to lower emissions per kilometre for vehicles which use petrol or diesel in the Baseline than in the Alternative. Air quality pollutant emissions per kilometre travelled The National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) provides figures for emissions per kilometre of various air pollutants by vehicle type29. We focus on nitrous oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) in our analysis. 27 National Travel Survey,, September 2021. Link. Table NTS0409b Average distance travelled by purpose and main mode: England, from 2002. 28 Road traffic statistics, Department for Transport, Link. 29 Emission factors for transport, National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory, Link. Fleet Weighted Road Transport Emission Factor 2020.