Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

15  Centre for Economics and Business Research will form a larger part of overall demand in future, and in some cases, they are targeting much later dates – for instance 2050 in Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country21. Figure 2 shows how fuel consumption for petrol and diesel cars and LGVs develops under each scenario22. 4.4. Charging and refuelling times Recharging and refuelling times Typical charging times faced by users of plug-in vehicles (PHEV and BEV) depend on: • The mix of chargers available by speed (slow, fast, rapid, and ultra-rapid) and how they are distributed by charging location – e.g., home, on-street, en-route. • Where each type of vehicle is charged, and therefore the likely charging speed. A Competition & Markets Authority (CMA) report23 into the UK’s electric vehicle charging network provides some useful data to support these estimates: • Typical charging times by charger type: 3-8 hours for slow; 1-3 hours for fast, 20-40 minutes for rapid; 15-30 minutes for ultra-rapid. We take average times from each of these as the respective charging times. • Number of public charge points by type in the UK in 2020 and forecast requirement in 2030. We assume that the number and mix of chargers evolves as set out in this forecast, which we extrapolate beyond 2030. • Qualitative and quantitative information on where charging takes place and types of chargers by location; for example, that the 25% of drivers without off-street parking will rely on kerbside on-street charging, which tends to be slow or fast. On the basis of this information, we project the mix of chargers and therefore average charging times by location type (home, workplace, destination, on-street, en-route), and mix of charging locations by vehicle (i.e., while most charging of cars, motorbikes, and LGVs will take place at home chargers, HGVs will be charged en-route). We then adjust these charging times to account for the proportion or amount of time spent which is additional, i.e., the real time cost of charging to the user rather than simply the raw charging time. For non-public charging, most of this charging is assumed to take place overnight or during the working day, so it represents time spent putting the vehicle on and off charge.24 21 Indonesia aims to sell only electric-powered cars, motorbikes by 2050, Reuters, Link. 22 Diesel OGVs are not shown – their fuel consumption is much higher (0.185 litres/km in 2021) and not suitable for the same scale; however, the impact of these assumptions on their trajectory is similar. 23 Building a comprehensive and competitive electric vehicle charging sector that works for all drivers, Competition & Markets Authority, July 2021, Link. 24 The modelling does not account for the potential for rapid and ultra-rapid charging to cause damage to battery’s when used frequently. This could cause a loss of value for EVs in the second-hand car market.