14 Centre for Economics and Business Research Figure 2: Fuel consumption projections in Baseline and Alternative scenarios (litres/km) In the Alternative scenario, fuel consumption projections from TAG are used throughout. In these projections, improvements in petrol/diesel consumption efficiency slow down after 2030. In the Baseline, we assume that efficiency continues to improve as it did prior to 2030, up until 2050. This captures the possibility that, in the absence of a ban on ICE vehicles, manufacturers would continue to make fuel efficiency improvements, rather than purely focussing on electric propulsion. Arguably, the TAG assumption is a rather strong one – ultimately the market for cars is a global one, and as long as there is significant demand for new ICE vehicles in other countries, manufacturers will have incentives to improve their efficiency. The UK’s proposed 2030 ban is unusual by international standards. For instance, in the United States, some state-level bans are in place for 2035 onwards, including in large states like California and New York. though a federal ban has not yet been announced19. The EU Parliament recently approved a ban to start five years after the UK’s, for cars, starting in 203520 though the ban covers a wider range of vehicles than that in the UK. Various emerging markets 19 These Are the States Banning New Sales of Gas and Diesel Vehicles, YAA, Link. 20 EU lawmakers back effective ban on new fossil-fuel cars from 2035, Reuters, Link. 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Petrol car - Baseline Diesel car - Baseline Petrol LGV - Baseline Diesel LGV - Baseline Petrol car - Alternative Diesel car - Alternative Petrol LGV - Alternative Diesel LGV - Alternative
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