Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

13  Centre for Economics and Business Research and BEV cars. In 2035, demand for HEV and PHEV cars goes to BEV cars. Demand is therefore kept consistent. New vehicle prices Prices for brand new vehicles used in the model were based on data from ONS and industry evidence. 15 16 Prices were converted into 2022 values. For the core results, they are assumed to remain constant to 2050. Scrappage Scrappage is the mechanism through which vehicles (mainly older models) are removed from the fleet. There is no hard data on scrappage rates, however it seems reasonable to assume that they increase with vehicle age – older vehicles are more likely to develop mechanical faults that render them ‘write-offs’, i.e., the cost of repair exceeds their value. Moreover, as technology progresses and fuel efficiency improves, the greatest savings in running costs by changing vehicle will be available to those with older models. For subsequent years, scrappage rates change according to developments in prices in the second-hand market.17 Fuel consumption The DfT’s Transport Appraisal Guidance (TAG) data book contains both historical and forecasted values for vehicle fuel consumption: • Fuel consumption parameters, relating litres of liquid fuel or kilowatt hours of electricity consumed per kilometre to speed of travel. These are provided for petrol, diesel, and electric cars and LGVs, and for diesel ordinary goods vehicles (OGVs). • Projected proportions of car and LGV kilometres travelled by petrol, diesel, and electricity. The relative petrol/diesel proportions are used to weight petrol/diesel consumption and emissions figures in calculations for ICE vehicles. These provide a useful starting point for our analysis but needed to be supplemented with further figures from the BEIS Conversion factors for company reporting18. This dataset includes per-kilometre emissions from use of liquid fuels and electricity for various types of vehicle. These are used to estimate: • HEV and PHEV liquid fuel consumption relative to ICE vehicles. • PHEV electricity consumption relative to BEV vehicles. • Motorcycle fuel consumption relative to cars. 15 Average car prices: 2021, ONS, April 2022, Link. 16 Where are the mid-priced electric bikes?, BikeSocial, Link. 17 The EPA study referred to previously estimates an elasticity of -0.21 with respect to used vehicle prices; intuitively, the higher the value of a used vehicle, the less likely that it is uneconomic to repair it. 18 Government conversion factors for company reporting of greenhouse gas emissions,, Link.