Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

21  Centre for Economics and Business Research Environmental impacts (£Bn) Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, driving emissions 64.7 37.7 0.7 19.8 6.5 Air quality emissions 11.2 4.5 0.1 5.7 0.9 Reduced cost of fuel The difference in fuel costs is significantly driven by the difference in tax applied through Fuel Duty and VAT. The reduced cost to consumers due to a transition to electric vehicles has been calculated below. The total reduction in expenditure related to fuel/charging expenditure has been calculated to be £41.8 billion over the years 2022 to 2050. If, however, we look at resource cost only (excluding Fuel Duty and VAT), results indicate a £34.9 billion cost, since the tax element is merely a transfer and not a resource cost. Household/business spending (£Bn) Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV Fuel 41.8 29.4 0.6 9.2 2.6 Fuel (resource cost only) -34.9 -17.1 -0.3 -13.3 -4.3 Monetised Costs Increased CO2e emissions during vehicle manufacture It is widely recognised that the production of EV vehicles generate more CO2e emissions than during the process of manufacturing ICE vehicles. The impact in terms of the value of increased production emission is calculated to be £32.5 billion Environmental impacts (£Bn) Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV CO2e, vehicle manufacture 32.5 21.5 1.1 8.9 1.1 Increased purchase costs of new vehicles Despite the subsidy provided for the purchase of new EV vehicles, they are still currently generally more expensive than new ICE vehicles. The total additional costs over the period 2022-2050 are estimated to be £187.8 billion. Household/business spending (£Bn) Total Car Motorbike LGV HGV New vehicles 187.8 98.0 7.2 67.2 15.4 Increased time spent refuelling/ recharging A 2016 Department for Transport survey showed concern about recharging was the most significant factor preventing consumers buying an electric vehicle (45%), followed by the distance travelled by one charge (39%). The increased waiting times in a scenario of a faster transition to EVs due to the bans, could be the most visible significant impact. Indeed, if the bans come into effect and the charging system is inadequate, the consequences could be immensely disruptive and could easily mean higher not lower emissions as drivers depend more on an aging fleet of vehicles. This report makes assumptions that are similarly optimistic to those made by government departments and agencies about the likely costs and achievable