27 ÓCentre for Economics and Business Research 6. Long term impact 6.1. Introduction The government has indicated that in its forthcoming energy white paper it will accept the recommendation that the ban on sales of fossil fuel driven vehicles be advanced from 2040 to 2030. Revenues raised from fuel duties will therefore diminish. This section looks at Cebr and OBR estimates to see how rapidly fuel duty revenue will evaporate. 6.2. The OBR view In its fiscal risks report in 2017 the OBR stated: Fuel duty is forecast to raise £27.5 billion (1.4 per cent of GDP) in 2017-18 … In both scenarios, receipts continue to fall as a share of GDP beyond 2021-22. By 2030, in our less fuel-efficient scenario they fall to 1.12 per cent of GDP; in the more fuel-efficient scenario they fall to 1.00 per cent of GDP. If the Government meets the Committee on Climate Change recommendation of near-zero emissions from transport by 2050, then fuel duty receipts would tend towards zero on current policy settings34 Figure 7 OBR’s prediction of long-term trends in fuel duty revenue as a proportion of GDP (Source IFS Green Budget Options for Motoring Taxation) Figure 7 charts the 2017 OBR forecast. 34 OBR, Fiscal Risks Report, Cm 9459, July 2017 para 5.8, 5.16
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