26 ÓCentre for Economics and Business Research range from a revenue loss from the early Cebr research to a net gain of about £1,200 million from the NIESR research. Looking at all the studies we think that the annual revenue that might be gained in the short term will be £1,500-£2,800 million. There is likely to be a negative economic effect though the studies disagree about the scale of this. Scaling from the early Cebr research indicated a negative GDP impact of 2.1%, which may be on the high side, while the Similarly, the early Cebr jobs calculations are higher than the others; the implied jobs impact of the Treasury modelling is around 4,000 jobs lost as a result of the increase. Looking at all the studies our assessment is that a 12p rise will reduce GDP by about £2,400 million (approximately 1%) and reduce employment by about 31,000 jobs.