Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

7  Centre for Economics and Business Research The Current Situation The decarbonisation of vehicles has begun to pick up pace partly as both consumers and industry anticipate the forthcoming bans. For instance, there are already over half a million electric cars on UK roads. Moreover, many manufacturers have already started to re-orient their operations and transition away from the production of conventional petrol and diesel cars towards EV production. The pace of this change has differed by sector. Whilst there has already been a significant application of zero emission technology in the fleet of small commercial vehicles, there has been much less change with respect to larger heavy goods vehicles. Nevertheless, there have been some applications in this area. An example of a HGV zero emission vehicle is that of Leyland Trucks, a PACCAR company and the UK’s largest HGV manufacturer. DAF LF Electric vehicles are entering service with a range of public bodies, including the NHS and Local Authorities.3 There are also significant challenges with respect to the extent to which consumers are prepared to take up new vehicles. Ofgem research has found that consumers find these to be the key blockers of EV uptake: 1. Vehicle prices are too high or up-front costs; 2. Short battery life/short driving range; 3. Nowhere to charge a vehicle close to home. The Department for Transport’s transport technology tracker survey has shown that, when asked about the benefits of electric vehicles, 55% mention anticipated savings on road tax and 40% cite reduced running costs. This, however, does not account for the fuel duty incorporated into fuel prices, which increases the operating cost for petrol or diesel vehicles. A large percentage (81%) also talk about the environmental benefits of electric vehicles. However, the most significant concern limiting uptake was the availability of charge points, given by 73% of people surveyed. Respondents also mentioned the range of vehicles, the time taken to charge, and knowing how to charge. Infrastructure Needs There are significant costs associated with the need to provide sufficient infrastructure to meet the changing demands of so many more drivers of electric vehicles. According to Zap-Map there were approximately 34,000 public charging devices in the UK as of August 2022 and more than 940,000 plug-in cars with approximately 530,000 BEVs and 410,000 PHEVs registered.4 The CCC expect that in order to grow the UK’s EV fleet to an estimated number of 23.2 million by 2032, 325,000 public charging points will be required. Currently, it is estimated that 80% of EV users charge their vehicles at home overnight, while 25% of households do not have off-street parking (e.g., multi-story flats) and need to charge on-street or elsewhere. This means that there is a need for charge points on homes but also in public areas, especially on motorways and major roads, and at destinations like supermarkets. 3 4 Zap map – Link