Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

39  Centre for Economics and Business Research Moreover, the Institute of the Motor Industry, 97% of active mechanics aren’t suitably qualified to work on electric vehicles.53 There is also evidence from the European continent who are implementing similar plans. European Commission announced its intention earlier this year to eliminate 100% of carbon emissions from new cars by 2035. The policy effectively bans the sale of fossil-fuel powered vehicles after that date. European auto suppliers have estimated that half a million jobs will be at risk under EU plans to effectively ban combustion-engine cars by 2035. Their view is that more than two-thirds of those of these 501,000 will be gone in the five years preceding the ban. More recently, Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda, said that going all-EV could cost Japan 5.5 million jobs and eight million units of lost vehicle output by 2030. 54 There are also concerns form the Toyota CEO about how quickly consumers will embrace the new technologies. The CEO also said that a lack of sufficient infrastructure will hold back EV adoption rates, which is a factor in its decision not to go all in on electricity. A government-sanctioned report in Germany has reached similar conclusions. It warned that approximately 400,000 jobs could be lost in Germany as a result of the transition away from ICE vehicle manufacturer. The job losses can occur as the types of people gaining jobs are not necessarily those who lose jobs. Furthermore, the German auto industry association VDA has estimated that a ban of combustion-engine vehicles in 2030 would threaten more than 600,000 German industrial jobs, of which 436,000 are at car companies and suppliers. However, there are also likely to be jobs created from the take-up of EVs. For instance, a survey by PwC found that 226,000 jobs would be created in manufacturing of electric parts. The key to understanding the impact is the net job loss (or creation). The PwC survey estimates that this 226,000 job gain will limit the net number of job losses to approximately 275,000 over the next couple of decades. A key aspect is that a portion of the extra jobs are merely a cost of the transition to a new type of vehicle. As a new generation of engineers are trained specifically to handle EVs, this will limit the net costs, as this will represent a substitution away ICE training. Job losses in local the local automotive industry ONS data indicates that there are approximately 3,553,000 people employed in the sector. Employment rates seem to be steadily increasing since 2012. Many of those employed in this sector will not be able to re-purpose their skills to meet a rapidly changing sector. History has shown that rapid structural changes in an economy can lead to pockets of significant longterm unemployment. This was a key characteristic of the staple industries that were predominantly in the north of the UK in the early 20th century but have since rapidly declined, leaving the present need to ‘level up’ the economy. 53 54