3 Centre for Economics and Business Research Contents 1. Key Points .............................................................................................................. 4 2. Introduction........................................................................................................... 6 3. The Analytical Approach......................................................................................... 9 4. Methodology ....................................................................................................... 11 4.1. Baseline and Alternative scenarios 11 4.2. The UK’s vehicle fleet in 2022 12 4.3. Future development of the UK’s vehicle fleet 12 4.4. Charging and refuelling times 15 4.5. Driving and production emissions 17 5. Results ................................................................................................................. 19 5.1. Core results 19 Monetised Impacts ................................................................................................................ 19 Monetised Benefits ................................................................................................................ 19 Monetised Costs .................................................................................................................... 21 5.2. Household impacts 27 5.3. Van user impacts 27 5.4. Sensitivity tests 28 Alternative carbon prices ......................................................................................................... 28 TAG fuel consumption projections in both scenarios .............................................................. 29 Low carbon fuel (biofuel) adoption.......................................................................................... 30 Energy price shocks.................................................................................................................. 31 6. Non-monetised impacts ....................................................................................... 36 7. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 40
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