25 Centre for Economics and Business Research Figure 5 illustrates this decline in annual tax revenues by scenario. Figure 5: Fuel Duty and VAT revenues (£ million) by scenario Cebr has an in-house analysis tool used to estimate tax revenues associated with employment according to number and salary of employees. We use figures from this model to put in context the tax impacts of the 2030 ban. The median salary of a full-time worker in the UK is approximately £31,30039. £6,500 of this is paid in Income Tax and Employees’ NICs, with Employers’ NICs bringing the total to £9,700. In present value terms, the estimated impact of the 2030 ban on Fuel Duty and VAT revenues between now and 2050 is £76.8 billion. This is equivalent to the Income Tax, Employees' NICs, and Employers' NICs revenue which would be raised from 414,000 UK full-time workers on median earnings over the same time period. If these impacts are evaluated starting in 2030 rather than 2022, impact is equivalent to the revenue from 669,000 of these taxpayers. These calculations assume that real median incomes and tax bands/rate do not change relative to each other, so tax revenues per worker remain the same. 39 Employee earnings in the UK: 2021 https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursan dearnings/2021 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Duty Baseline VAT Baseline Duty Alternative VAT Alternative
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