Cebr Analysis of 2030 Ban

23  Centre for Economics and Business Research than with no bans, due to the need to support many more EVs joining the fleet during that period. The National Infrastructure Commission’s analysis suggests that a 100% uptake of electric cars and vans could increase total annual electricity demand by 26% by 2050.35 They have estimated the impact of that the rapid uptake of electric vehicles and hybrid heat pumps could increase total expenditure on distribution networks by up to £50 billion by 2035. This has been used as the basis of estimating the impact of the increase in EVs on the grid. An in-house Cebr model has been used to supplement this estimate by calculating the impact of increased renewables use on the National Grid. This is required to achieve sufficiently clean energy to ensure EVs do not generate substantial emissions through drawing electricity from an unclean electricity grid. A key challenge is that both average capacity and peak capacity will need to increase to a level sufficient to handle extended periods of low wind and sun. A relatively low cost of achieving this has been assumed. The capital cost of new generation has been estimated to be £119 billion over the period 2022-2050. The government will likely need to play a significant role in providing this investment for several reasons. Firstly, there are significant risks to undertaking investment in charging facilities, which is likely to exceed levels that the private sector is willing to bear. Secondly, this represents a key government regulatory policy change, and so there will remain pressure on the government to ensure that sufficient funds are secured to prevent it from failing. Finally, the benefits of the bans are largely ‘externalities’ that the private sector is unlikely take full responsibility for facilitating. Charging infrastructure To meet demand, a large number of new charge points will be required. The CCC forecast a potential 370,000 public charge points will be required by 2035. However, many experts would suggest that this amount and implied rate of roll out would be far too low to provide sufficient capacity. Over the same period, we estimate up to 19 million home charge points may also be required, to meet EV uptake projections. However, this may be a relatively conservative estimate. An example of the type of investment required includes that of Pivot Power, a UK-based energy company, who is working with National Grid to build 45 new charging sites, each with up to 100 charge points, across the country, investing £1.6 billion.36 The government has plans to invest a similar amount to develop charge points. This has been used as a basis of estimating the investment required to per charge point. 35 36