11 Centre for Economics and Business Research 4. Methodology The analysis covers the period from 2022 until 2050 and assesses cars, motorcycles, LGVs and HGVs separately as well as aggregated values covering all vehicle types. 4.1. Baseline and Alternative scenarios Our analysis tests two core scenarios, a baseline case of no ban and an alternative scenario where both of the proposed bans come into operation. The model is run from 2022 to 2050: • In the Baseline, there is no ban on vehicles in any category. Therefore, the law is not changed, and households, businesses, and manufacturers operate with this expectation in mind. • In the Alternative, planned bans9 on the sale of new vehicles go ahead as follows: o In 2030, internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, motorbikes, and LGVs. o In 2035, hybrid electric (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) cars, motorbikes, and LGVs. o In 2040, ICE, HEV, and PHEV heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). Therefore, in the Alternative scenario only battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can be bought as new from 2040 onwards, as illustrated in Figure 1, which shows the differing time periods of availability of different types of vehicles. Figure 1: Availability of new vehicles by type and propulsion, Alternative scenario 9 Government takes historic step towards net-zero with end of sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, November 2020, Link. UK confirms pledge for zero-emission HGVs by 2040 and unveils new chargepoint design, November 2021, Link. As it stands there is uncertainty around the nature of proposed bans regarding motorbikes, and hybrid cars and vans. We have assumed that motorbikes will be treated the same as cars. The 2030 ban announcement says that ‘Between 2030 and 2035, new cars and vans can be sold if they have the capability to drive a significant distance with zero emissions (for example, plugin hybrids or full hybrids), and this will be defined through consultation.’ Therefore, stricter emissions standards for hybrids may apply in the 2030-2035 period under the ban – but we have not assumed this in our modelling. 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ICE Car HEV Car PHEV Car BEV Car ICE Motorbike HEV Motorbike PHEV Motorbike BEV Motorbike ICE LGV HEV LGV PHEV LGV BEV LGV ICE HGV HEV HGV PHEV HGV BEV HGV
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