Fair Fuel APPG for UK Motorists and UK Hauliers August 2021 Page | 29 Lazy economics It is well known that numerous Chancellors have seen drivers, in general and road fuel duty in particular as attractive targets for increased taxation. FairFuelUK has been instrumental in keeping Fuel Duty frozen for over 10 years. But UK drivers remain one of the highest taxed in the world. (See table: Feb 2021: Fuel Tax take for EU and UK) Without contemplating the significant economic impacts, it appears obvious that any future plans to increase road fuel duty in an effort to penalise or dis-incentivise continued use of ICE (Internal Combustion Engine cars could cause an increase in emissions, the opposite of the intended policy. Similarly, mention is often made of scrappage schemes to encourage renewal of the fleet. It should be obvious by now that though such schemes have the benefit of increasing demand for new cars, in an environment where there is manufacturing overcapacity, the likely practical impact is a short-term increase in CO 2 E from manufacturing. This can be viewed as a carbon debt, which will take a number of years to pay back. The shift to renewables has been underway for some time. History tells us that delivery is much harder to achieve than expected. There is no reason to take a different view as we move through the 2020’s, especially as a significant proportion of baseload nuclear generating capacity comes to end of life and is decommissioned. The truth is that the generating capacity simply does not exist. Beyond generating capacity, significant investments in grid capacity are also required to deliver all the extra electricity needed for BEV. This needs to be sized to meet peak demand, not average levels. The LCA analysis performed by Polestar does not include the carbon intensity of building new BEV factories or supply chain facilities that may be required, as declared on page 13. Neither is the carbon intensity of building and installing new charging infrastructure for BEV whether domestically, at the roadside or the workplace factored in the evaluation. As construction has a high carbon footprint, we suggest there may be significant carbon costs omitted from existing evaluations, which should be considered. Finally, the consequences for human rights from the manufacture of BEV batteries should be contemplated very seriously, alongside strategic geopolitical considerations, in addition, and perhaps with greater priority than the LCA analysis. See Green Killers: Congo’s Miners Dying to Feed World’s Hunger for Electric Cars Range anxiety for new owners of BEV’s becomes exaggerated as the available range reduces with use and age. This may affect desirability on the used market and shorten useful life. See: Reasons for reluctance to convert to an EV.