APPG 2030 Ban

Fair Fuel APPG for UK Motorists and UK Hauliers August 2021 Page | 19 A global picture of increasing electricity demand The IEA's Global Energy Review 2021 3 says the world’s energy demand is set to increase by 4.6% in 2021, more than offsetting the 4% contraction in pandemic year 2020 and pushing demand 0.5% above 2019 levels. Almost 70% of the projected increase in global energy demand is in emerging markets and developing economies, where demand is set to rise to 3.4% above 2019 levels. Energy use in advanced economies is on course to be 3% below pre-Covid levels. In the United States – the world’s largest natural gas market – the annual increase in demand is set to amount to less than 20% of the 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) decline in 2020, squeezed by the continued growth of renewables and rising natural gas prices. Nearly three-quarters of the global demand growth in 2021 is from the industry and buildings sectors, while electricity generation from natural gas remains below 2019 levels. Coal demand is on course to rise 4.5% in 2021, with more than 80% of the growth concentrated in Asia. China alone is projected to account for over 50% of global growth. Coal demand in the United States and the European Union is also rebounding but is still set to remain well below pre-pandemic crisis levels. The power sector accounted for only 50% of the drop in coal-related emissions in 2020. But the rapid increase in coal-fired generation in Asia means the power sector is expected to account for over 80% of the rebound in 2021. The majority of the increase in electricity generation from fossil fuels worldwide is paradoxically likely to be provided by coal-fired power plants, with their output expected to increase by 480 TWh. Due to upward pressure on gas prices, natural gas benefits to only a small extent (+1%). In the United States, where coal-fired generation dropped by around 20% in 2020, we expect about half of this loss to be reversed in 2021 – as coal-to-gas switching is unwound in some parts of the country. As a result, gas-fired generation falls by almost 80 TWh in 2021 in the United States. Well over half of the increase in coal-fired electricity generation in 2021 is anticipated in China. Although representing about 45% of additional global renewable generation, around half of the 8% increase in electricity supply in China is provided by fossil fuels in 2021, pushing generation from coal in China up by 330 TWh (or 7%) on 2019 levels. In India, which is expected to have the second-largest absolute demand growth after China, 70% of additional electricity demand in 2021 will be covered by thermal generation – almost all from coal. Fuel for thought UK FIRES led by Professor Julian M Allwood FREng at Cambridge University said in his ‘Absolute Zero’ Report Copyright ©2019: “If we only used electricity, delivering all the transport, heat, and goods we use in the UK, would require 3x more electricity than we use today. If we expand renewables as fast as we can, we could deliver about 60% of this requirement with zero emissions in 2050. Therefore in 2050 we must plan to use 40% less energy than we use today, and all of it must be electric.” In contrast, natural gas demand (an efficient energy resource largely made up of methane, a compound with one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms) is set to grow by 3.2% in 2021, propelled by increasing demand in Asia, the Middle East, and the Russian Federation (“Russia”). This is expected to put global demand more than 1% above 2019 levels.