THE ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE HISTORIC AND CLASSIC MOTOR INDUSTRY IN THE UK

68 15. Conclusions and the future This report has shown how important the historic and classic vehicle industry is to the UK. It is a substantial driver of jobs and economic activity. It supports a wide range of historic and craft skills whose value is recognised by a 70% wage premium. It is the opposite of London centric – in fact London only accounts for 5.3% of the activity of the entire sector. Instead it is widely distributed throughout the country with 9.6% of the industry in the West Midlands and 8.2% in Yorkshire. Looking forward, the industry will have to match the times. Advances in modes of propulsion may make it difficult to use internal combustion engines, at least in crowded cities. It is important that the industry’s l eaders work with regulators to ensure that the current enthusiasm is not burnt out by fear that the use of these vehicles will be banned or so circumscribed by regulations that potential owners think of them as unusable. We estimate that the value of the f leet of classic vehicles is £12.6 billion. This could be wiped out if people are scared off buying such vehicles. And if the industry were to disappear, £8. 7 billion per annum of GVA and 113,000 jobs would have to be replaced. Fortunately, the level of enthusiasm for the sector is such that there are grounds for confidence that this will not happen. But it pays not to be complacent. Another potential challenge is Brexit. At time of writing the nature of the post Brexit trade agreement between the UK and the EU is uncertain. Almost certainly the biggest impact of Brexit will be through its impact on the various economies affected. There is a wide range of views about this and it is best in a report of this nature not to speculate on this matter. Clearly 2020 has been a challenge with the events calendar largely wiped out, though there have been exceptions. However, an encouraging feature has been the extent to which the industry has survived through the lockdown. Classic car prices have remained remarkably solid and with interest rates in many countries low to negative and fears of asset price crashes, many wealthy individuals have decided to invest in vehicles on the basis that if they can’t get a return at least they can have fun. Many workshops have said that they have been extremely busy through the lockdown as owners have decided to take advantage of the events hiatus to pursue long planned rebuilds or upgrades. And those who live on routes often used by classic cars have seen plenty of evidence of owners using their vehicles. So the sector is robust. And with the right encouragement can continue to boost the UK economy, promote the best of British skills and encourage the greening of the economy.