CEBR Fuel Duty Impact - Nov 2020

8 © Centre for Economics and Business Research The research also considers the extent to which different groups can avoid the consequences of the rise in duty through 1) buying vehicles with reduced fuel consumption such as electric or hybrid vehicles; and 2) adjusting their driving patterns 2.3. Economic consequences of a rise in fuel duty Task two investigates the economic consequences of a rise in duty The second aspect of the work investigates the economic impact of a rise in fuel duty. This looks at the impact on borrowing, on tax revenues, on the CPI, on GDP and on jobs. Cebr and other models are used to make estimates of these consequences. The second element of this part of the research estimates the longevity of any revenue effects. Revenues from fuel duties are expected to decline over time. The research shows how any revenue benefits from raising fuel duty are likely to be only temporary. 2.4. The impact of the freeze in fuel prices It is worth noting in this context that the freeze in fuel duties since 2011 has been highly successful. Cebr research has indicated that this has reduced consumer prices by 6.7% and has boosted household expenditure by £24 billion. Arguably it would be bizarre, when a policy has proved so successful, to change it 3 . 3 The impact of the fuel duty freeze on UK prices A Cebr report for FairFuel UK September 2018