CEBR Fuel Duty Impact - Nov 2020

2 © Centre for Economics and Business Research Contents 1. Introduction and summary 4 1.1. Introduction 4 1.2. Distributional impact 4 1.3. Economic impact 4 1.4. Summary 4 2. Background 6 2.1. Introduction 6 2.2. Distributional impact of a rise in fuel duty 7 2.3. Economic consequences of a rise in fuel duty 8 2.4. The impact of the freeze in fuel prices 8 3. Distributional impact of a 2p rise in fuel duty 9 3.1. Introduction 9 3.2. The scale of the increase 9 3.3. Affordability of electric vehicles 11 3.4. Ability to use public transport or walk 11 3.5. Disability 12 3.6. Impact by region 12 3.7. Impact on vans and other light goods vehicles drivers 13 The demographics of van usage 14 3.8. Impact on HGVs 15 4. Economic Impact 17 4.1. Introduction 17 4.2. Cebr modelling 17 4.3. NIESR 17 4.4. Treasury model using DGM 18

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