CEBR Fuel Duty Impact - Nov 2020

20 © Centre for Economics and Business Research Looking at all the studies we think that the revenue that might be gained in the short term will be £250-470 million. There is likely to be a negative economic effect though the studies disagree about the scale of this. Scaling from the early Cebr research indicated a negative GDP impact of 0.7%, which may be on the high side, while the more recent Treasury dynamic modelling research indicates a much smaller effect of 0.01%. Similarly, the early Cebr jobs calculations are higher than the others; the implied jobs impact of the Treasury modelling is around 4,000 jobs lost as a result of the increase. Looking at all the studies our assessment is that a 2p rise will reduce GDP by about £600 million and reduce employment by about 8,000 jobs.